U. S. Energy Prices – Cause and Effect
When it comes to U.S. energy prices, everything seems to be affected by demand. For instance, if there is a higher demand for oil, then the gas prices go up. Oddly enough the economic climate should have lowered the standard cost, but due to the demand in other countries, it’s a lot higher then we would expect.
Oil consumption worldwide increased by 28.6% between 1978 and 2004. It is only a small amount less than that, 25.8% of this year’s increase alone, that China is responsible for. South Korea’s demand for oil rose by a staggering 344% from 1978 to 2004, also widely increasing demand for oil. This growth in demand for oil has driven prices up to approximately $70 a barrel in the last quarter of 2009, from just $12 at the start of 1999.
It’s also important to understand that the price of crude oil directly influences the cost of other fuels. The biggest three are electricity, gasoline, and petroleum. Even though the recession was a stressful time, now that things are turning around it’s safe to say it will rise again in 2010. During the downtime, we still used 1.25 million barrels a day.
Respectively, gasoline prices are expected to drop again in the fourth quarter of 2009, before going back on the rise in 2010. Average gasoline prices can be expected to increase by about 40c per gallon from 2009 to 2010. However, the average retail price of electricity is set to decline by 2% due to the cheaper price of fossil fuels required for generation.
While the economy remains unstable, U.S. energy prices will be less certain. In the supply and demand chain, if fuel prices suddenly rise too high, demand will decrease as smaller businesses and companies can no longer afford production. However, while prices are on the decline it will help industry pick up again as their profits increase. The delicate balance should be maintained by both crude oil sales and industry relying on each other. Undoubtedly, as the economy picks up speed once more, crude oil prices will increase. It is only a matter of time before other fuel prices follow.
When looking at electricity consumption through the first half of 2009, there was a large decrease. In fact, according to sources the decreases fell short of 5% by only .6% in the prior year. In the second part of 2009 though, the decline has leveled out to around 2.3%. Hopefully the prices can remain low for the remainder of the year. When the economy settles though, the industry will start to receive their increase in costs once again.
The economy is mentioned constantly in relation to U.S. energy prices. As the international recession is far from over, it is expected to take at least a year for demand for fuel to rise back to the peaks of previous years. Since early 2008, prices have steadily declined in response to the sudden uncertainty in finance and industry that had led to worldwide economic recession.
Probably the worst part about crude oil prices is that they try to predict where the economy is going. If by chance it looks as though things are going to turnaround, all the sudden the prices rise. Then again, if by chance there is more hardship along the way, the costs either stay the same or drop. A good example is the unemployment world. The benefit claims have declined over the recent months, but the unemployment is still at an unhealthy level.
It’s hard to believe the lower demand for energy has left fuel prices higher then we would believe. Then again, as long as there is an ample supply available, you can expect the costs to go down. Natural gas however has reached a new 5-year high. Needless to say it’s going to be awhile before the demand actually over trumps the supply. In the end the industry has to stay encouraged in order for us to see it recover.
What it comes down to is the U.S. energy prices have declined due to the lack of demand. However, as long as the economy fluctuates throughout the world, prices will continue on their roller coaster ride. Early on in 2010 expect to see a gradual increase in gasoline costs, but for now, enjoy the decrease.
